by Alice Friedemann    January 6, 2006ã

  

            Peak oil will affect more people, in more places, in more ways, than anything else in the history of the world.  Walter Youngquist, author of Geodestinies

 Summary

 

After worldwide oil production peaks, there are no substitutes ready to make up the energy shortfall.  The immediate problem will be a need for liquid transportation fuels.

 

Liquid, renewable fuels, such as ethanol and hydrogen, do not have a high enough Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROI) to run civilization, let alone maintain the existing infrastructure, the majority of which was built when oil had an EROI of 40 to 100.[i]  

 

Liquid, non-renewable fossil fuels that could be used to replace oil, such as liquefied coal, require a tremendous amount of expensive infrastructure that needs to be built at least ten years before the world peak production of oil, according to Robert Hirsch.[ii]  We haven’t done that, nor is it likely we ever will, because after peak, fossil fuels will be rationed and apportioned to agriculture and other critical agencies.[iii]  

We’re likely to lose many of the books printed on acidic paper between 1850 and most of the 20^th century within decades. For the last twenty years, many books and journals have been printed on non-acidic paper and put on microfiche.  Both can last for centuries if kept at an ideal temperature and humidity.  But that isn’t permanent enough.   Librarians are aware of this, and have turned to computers as a way to preserve knowledge.  Some libraries are stopping the delivery of many printed journals and have them online only.

 

But computers are the top card in the house-of-cards complex civilization we built with coal and oil, and computers will be the first to go when supply chains fail as global trade diminishes.  

 

Declining energy supplies are likely to trigger a global depression, resulting in political instability, which may trigger resource wars.    

 

Preservation of knowledge needs to start immediately, while nations are still stable and wealthy.  Now is the time to consider how to preserve knowledge with a material that won’t decay, rust, mold, or shatter easily.  We should leave our descendents knowledge they can use and be amazed by, information to fuel the next Renaissance.